À´Ô´£ºÖнðµã¾¦
ÃÀ¹ú3ÔºËÐÄÓë×ÜÌåCPIͨÕÍË«Ë«»ØÂ䣬¾ùµÍÓÚÊг¡Ô¤ÆÚ¡£Í¨Õ͵ķŻº±íÃ÷£¬ÃÀ¹ú×ÜÐèÇóÔÚ¡°¶ÔµÈ¹ØË°¡±µ½À´Ö®Ç°¾ÍÒѾ×ßÈõ£¬ÈçÓͼۡ¢»úƱºÍ¾Æµê¼Û¸ñ´ó·ùÏ´졣¹ØË°³å»÷¶ÔºËÐÄÉÌÆ·¼Û¸ñµÄÓ°Ï첢δ³ä·ÖÌåÏÖ£¬µ«Õâ¿ÉÄÜÔÚδÀ´ÊýÔ¿ªÊ¼ÏÔÏÖ¡£ÍùÇ°¿´£¬w66¹ú¼Ê¡¤ÀûÀ´(Öйú)×î¸øÁ¦µÄÀÏÅÆÔ¤¼ÆÔÚÐèÇó×îÖÕѹÖÆͨÕÍ֮ǰ£¬ÃÀ¹úÎï¼Ûˮƽ»òÔÚµÚ¶þ¼¾¶È³öÏÖÒ»²¨ÉÏÕÇ¡£w66¹ú¼Ê¡¤ÀûÀ´(Öйú)×î¸øÁ¦µÄÀÏÅÆÔ¤¼ÆÃÀÁª´¢»á¼ÌÐø±£³Ö¹ÛÍû£¬¶ÌÆÚÄÚ²»»á½µÏ¢£¬ÖØÆô½µÏ¢»òÔÚµÚÈý¼¾¶È¡£
ÃÀ¹ú2ÔºËÐÄCPI¼¾µ÷»·±ÈÕÇ·ù´ÓÉÏÔµÄ0.2%»ØÂäÖÁ0.1%£¬Í¬±È´Ó3.1%ϽµÖÁ2.8%¡£×ÜÌåCPI¼¾µ÷»·±È´Ó0.2%ϽµÖÁ-0.1%£¬Í¬±È´Ó2.8%ϽµÖÁ2.4%¡£´Ó
3ÔÂÃÀ¹úCPI»úƱ¼Û¸ñ»·±Èϵø5.3%£¬ÕâÊÇÔÚÉϸöÔÂϵø4%µÄ»ù´¡ÉϼÌÐøϽµ¡£ÌØÀÊÆյĹØË°Õþ²ß´ò»÷Ïû·ÑÕßÓëÆóÒµÐÅÐÄ£¬Ê¹ÆäÏ÷¼õÂÃÐÐÓëÉÌÎñ³öÐмƻ®¡£¹ÉÊÐϵøµÄ²Æ¸»Ð§Ó¦³å»÷Ò²Áî¸üÓÐÏÐϾµÄ¡°ÍËÐÝÒ»´ú¡±¼õÉÙ³öÐÐÐèÇó[2]¡£¶øÕþ¸®¿ªÖ§Ëõ¼õҲѹ½µÁ˹«Îñ³ö²îÐèÇó[3]¡£ÕâЩÒòËØ´Ùʹº½¿Õ¹«Ë¾¶ÔÆäÄêÄÚ¶©µ¥ÐèÇó±äµÃ¸ü¼Ó±¯¹Û¡£ÀàËƵÄÔÒòÒ²¿ÉÄܵ¼Ö¾ƵêÐèÇóÆ£Èí¡£3Ô±ö¹Ý¼Û¸ñ»·±Èϵø4.3%¡£ÓÐÑо¿ÏÔʾ£¬ÌØÀÊÆÕ·´¸´µÄ¹ØË°Õþ²ßÓ뼤½øÍâ½»±í̬»òʹµÃÍâ¹úÓοͶÔÓÚ½üÆÚ·ÃÃÀÂÃÓθüΪÓÌÔ¥£¬½ø¶ø´ò»÷ÃÀ¹úÂÃÓÎÒµ[4]¡£
ͼ±í1£ºÃÀ¹ú3ÔºËÐÄCPIͨÕÍ»ØÂä
×ÊÁÏÀ´Ô´£ºHaver£¬
ͼ±í2£ººËÐÄÉÌƷͨÕÍ»·±È´Ó0.2%»ØÂäÖÁ-0.1%
×ÊÁÏÀ´Ô´£ºHaver£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾Ñо¿²¿
ͼ±í3£º·Ç·¿×âºËÐÄ·þÎñͨÕÍ»·±È»ØÂäÖÁ-0.2%
×ÊÁÏÀ´Ô´£ºHaver£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾Ñо¿²¿
ͼ±í4£ºÖ÷Òª·¿×âͨÕÍ»·±ÈÔö·ù·´µ¯ÖÁ0.4%
×¢£º·¿ÎÝ×â½ðÏîĿΪҵÖ÷µÈ¼Û×â½ðÓëÖ÷Òª¾ÓËù×â½ðÁ½¸öÖ¸±êµÄ¼ÓȨƽ¾ùÖµ¼ÆËãµÃ³öµÄ»·±ÈÔöËÙ
×ÊÁÏÀ´Ô´£ºHaver£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾Ñо¿²¿
[1]ÏêÇé²Î¼û¡¶´ó×ÚÉÌÆ·£ºÍ¼Ëµ´ó×Ú£º¹ØË°³¬Ô¤ÆÚ£¬ÉÌÆ·ÓÅ×ÊÛ¡·
https://www.research.cicc.com/zh_CN/report?id=362936&entrance_source=search_all_reportlist&page=1&yPosition=206.18
[2]https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/airlines-expected-to-cut-2025-outlooks-as-travel-demand-falters.html
[3]https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/delta-air-lines-dal-1q-2025-earnings.html
[4]https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-trade-war-us-tourism/
[5]https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/
[6]https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-airlifts-600-tons-iphones-india-to-beat-trump-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-10/
±¾ÎÄÕª×Ô£º2025Äê4ÔÂ11ÈÕÒѾ·¢²¼µÄ¡¶ÃÀ¹úͨÕÍ·Å»º²»¸Ä¹ØË°µ£ÓÇ¡·
Ф½ÝÎÄ·ÖÎöÔ±SACÖ´Ö¤±àºÅ£ºS0080523060021SFCCERef£ºBVG234
ÕÅÎÄÀÊ·ÖÎöÔ±SACÖ´Ö¤±àºÅ£ºS0080520080009SFCCERef£ºBFE988
ÌرðÌáʾ
±¾¹«ÖںŲ»ÊÇÖйú¹ú¼Ê½ðÈڹɷÝÓÐÏÞ¹«Ë¾£¨Ï³ơ°Öнð¹«Ë¾¡±£©Ñо¿±¨¸æµÄ·¢²¼Æ½Ì¨¡£±¾¹«ÖÚºÅÖ»ÊÇת·¢Öнð¹«Ë¾ÒÑ·¢²¼Ñо¿±¨¸æµÄ²¿·Ö¹Ûµã£¬¶©ÔÄÕßÈôʹÓñ¾¹«ÖÚºÅËùÔØ×ÊÁÏ£¬ÓпÉÄÜ»áÒòȱ·¦¶ÔÍêÕû±¨¸æµÄÁ˽â»òȱ·¦Ïà¹ØµÄ½â¶Á¶ø¶Ô×ÊÁÏÖеĹؼü¼ÙÉè¡¢ÆÀ¼¶¡¢Ä¿±ê¼ÛµÈÄÚÈݲúÉúÀí½âÉϵÄÆçÒå¡£¶©ÔÄÕßÈçʹÓñ¾×ÊÁÏ£¬ÐëÑ°ÇóרҵͶ×ʹËÎʵÄÖ¸µ¼¼°½â¶Á¡£
±¾¹«ÖÚºÅËùÔØÐÅÏ¢¡¢Òâ¼û²»¹¹³ÉËùÊö֤ȯ»ò½ðÈÚ¹¤¾ßÂòÂôµÄ³ö¼Û»òÕ÷¼Û£¬ÆÀ¼¶¡¢Ä¿±ê¼Û¡¢¹ÀÖµ¡¢Ó¯ÀûÔ¤²âµÈ·ÖÎöÅжÏÒ಻¹¹³É¶Ô¾ßÌå֤ȯ»ò½ðÈÚ¹¤¾ßÔÚ¾ßÌå¼Ûλ¡¢¾ßÌåʱµã¡¢¾ßÌåÊг¡±íÏÖµÄͶ×ʽ¨Òé¡£¸ÃµÈÐÅÏ¢¡¢Òâ¼ûÔÚÈκÎʱºò¾ù²»¹¹³É¶ÔÈκÎÈ˵ľßÓÐÕë¶ÔÐԵġ¢Ö¸µ¼¾ßÌåͶ×ʵIJÙ×÷Òâ¼û£¬¶©ÔÄÕßÓ¦µ±¶Ô±¾¹«ÖÚºÅÖеÄÐÅÏ¢ºÍÒâ¼û½øÐÐÆÀ¹À£¬¸ù¾Ý×ÔÉíÇé¿ö×ÔÖ÷×ö³öͶ×ʾö²ß²¢×ÔÐге£Í¶×Ê·çÏÕ¡£
Öнð¹«Ë¾¶Ô±¾¹«ÖÚºÅËùÔØ×ÊÁϵÄ׼ȷÐÔ¡¢¿É¿¿ÐÔ¡¢Ê±Ð§ÐÔ¼°ÍêÕûÐÔ²»×÷ÈκÎÃ÷ʾ»ò°µÊ¾µÄ±£Ö¤¡£¶ÔÒÀ¾Ý»òÕßʹÓñ¾¹«ÖÚºÅËùÔØ×ÊÁÏËùÔì³ÉµÄÈκκó¹û£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾¼°/»òÆä¹ØÁªÈËÔ±¾ù²»³Ðµ£ÈκÎÐÎʽµÄÔðÈΡ£
±¾¹«ÖںŽöÃæÏòÖнð¹«Ë¾ÖйúÄڵؿͻ§£¬Èκβ»·ûºÏÇ°ÊöÌõ¼þµÄ¶©ÔÄÕߣ¬¾´Ç붩ÔÄÇ°×ÔÐÐÆÀ¹À½ÓÊÕ¶©ÔÄÄÚÈݵÄÊʵ±ÐÔ¡£¶©Ôı¾¹«ÖںŲ»¹¹³ÉÈκκÏͬ»ò³ÐŵµÄ»ù´¡£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾²»ÒòÈκε¥´¿¶©Ôı¾¹«ÖںŵÄÐÐΪ¶ø½«¶©ÔÄÈËÊÓΪÖнð¹«Ë¾µÄ¿Í»§¡£
Ò»°ãÉùÃ÷
±¾¹«ÖںŽöÊÇת·¢Öнð¹«Ë¾ÒÑ·¢²¼±¨¸æµÄ²¿·Ö¹Ûµã£¬ËùÔØÓ¯ÀûÔ¤²â¡¢Ä¿±ê¼Û¸ñ¡¢ÆÀ¼¶¡¢¹ÀÖµµÈ¹ÛµãµÄ¸øÓèÊÇ»ùÓÚһϵÁеļÙÉèºÍÇ°ÌáÌõ¼þ£¬¶©ÔÄÕßÖ»ÓÐÔÚÁ˽âÏà¹Ø±¨¸æÖеÄÈ«²¿ÐÅÏ¢»ù´¡ÉÏ£¬²Å¿ÉÄܶÔÏà¹Ø¹ÛµãÐγɱȽÏÈ«ÃæµÄÈÏʶ¡£ÈçÓûÁ˽âÍêÕû¹Ûµã£¬Ó¦²Î¼ûÖнðÑо¿ÍøÕ¾£¨http://research.cicc.com£©ËùÔØÍêÕû±¨¸æ¡£
±¾×ÊÁϽÏÖ®Öнð¹«Ë¾Õýʽ·¢²¼µÄ±¨¸æ´æÔÚÑÓʱת·¢µÄÇé¿ö£¬²¢ÓпÉÄÜÒò±¨¸æ·¢²¼ÈÕÖ®ºóµÄÇéÊÆ»òÆäËûÒòËصıä¸ü¶ø²»ÔÙ׼ȷ»òʧЧ¡£±¾×ÊÁÏËùÔØÒâ¼û¡¢ÆÀ¹À¼°Ô¤²â½öΪ±¨¸æ³ö¾ßÈյĹ۵ãºÍÅжϡ£¸ÃµÈÒâ¼û¡¢ÆÀ¹À¼°Ô¤²âÎÞÐè֪ͨ¼´¿ÉËæʱ¸ü¸Ä¡£Ö¤È¯»ò½ðÈÚ¹¤¾ßµÄ¼Û¸ñ»ò¼ÛÖµ×ßÊÆ¿ÉÄÜÊܸ÷ÖÖÒòËØÓ°Ï죬¹ýÍùµÄ±íÏÖ²»Ó¦×÷ΪÈÕºó±íÏÖµÄԤʾºÍµ£±£¡£ÔÚ²»Í¬Ê±ÆÚ£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾¿ÉÄܻᷢ³öÓë±¾×ÊÁÏËùÔØÒâ¼û¡¢ÆÀ¹À¼°Ô¤²â²»Ò»ÖµÄÑо¿±¨¸æ¡£Öнð¹«Ë¾µÄÏúÊÛÈËÔ±¡¢½»Ò×ÈËÔ±ÒÔ¼°ÆäËûרҵÈËÊ¿¿ÉÄÜ»áÒÀ¾Ý²»Í¬¼ÙÉèºÍ±ê×¼¡¢²ÉÓò»Í¬µÄ·ÖÎö·½·¨¶ø¿ÚÍ·»òÊéÃæ·¢±íÓë±¾×ÊÁÏÒâ¼û²»Ò»ÖµÄÊг¡ÆÀÂÛºÍ/»ò½»Ò׹۵㡣
ÔÚ·¨ÂÉÐí¿ÉµÄÇé¿öÏ£¬Öнð¹«Ë¾¿ÉÄÜÓë±¾×ÊÁÏÖÐÌá¼°¹«Ë¾ÕýÔÚ½¨Á¢»òÕùÈ¡½¨Á¢ÒµÎñ¹Øϵ»ò·þÎñ¹Øϵ¡£Òò´Ë£¬¶©ÔÄÕßÓ¦µ±¿¼Âǵ½Öнð¹«Ë¾¼°/»òÆäÏà¹ØÈËÔ±¿ÉÄÜ´æÔÚÓ°Ïì±¾×ÊÁϹ۵ã¿Í¹ÛÐÔµÄDZÔÚÀûÒæ³åÍ»¡£Óë±¾×ÊÁÏÏà¹ØµÄÅû¶ÐÅÏ¢Çë·Ãhttp://research.cicc.com/disclosure_cn£¬Òà¿É²Î¼û½üÆÚÒÑ·¢²¼µÄ¹ØÓÚÏà¹Ø¹«Ë¾µÄ¾ßÌåÑо¿±¨¸æ¡£
±¾¶©ÔĺÅÊÇÓÉÖнð¹«Ë¾Ñо¿²¿½¨Á¢²¢Î¬»¤µÄ¹Ù·½¶©Ôĺš£±¾¶©ÔĺÅÖÐËùÓÐ×ÊÁϵİæȨ¾ùΪÖнð¹«Ë¾ËùÓУ¬Î´¾ÊéÃæÐí¿ÉÈκλú¹¹ºÍ¸öÈ˲»µÃÒÔÈκÎÐÎʽת·¢¡¢×ªÔØ¡¢·°æ¡¢¸´ÖÆ¡¢¿¯µÇ¡¢·¢±í¡¢Ð޸ġ¢·ÂÖÆ»òÒýÓñ¾¶©ÔĺÅÖеÄÄÚÈÝ¡£